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September 26, 2005
NeWave Inc. (OTCBB:NWWV)
Financial Data (as of 9/20/05)
|
Stock Price: |
$0.87 |
|
52 Week Range: |
$.73 - $1.95 |
|
Market Cap (mil): |
$29.30 |
|
Shares Out (mil): |
$34.885 |
Strong Growth Through Consumer Direct Marketing Approach
and Liquidation of Capital Intensive Business Segments
Key Points
- We Are Initiating Coverage of NeWave
Inc. Our revenue estimates are $12,473,921 million
for 2005 and $14,550,828 million and for 2006.
- Liquidation of Capital Intensive
Business Segments Should Lead To Increased Profitability
and Improved Margins. NeWave Inc. is now focusing
100% on the expansion of its core business,
OnlineSupplier.com business and has recently
discontinued its Discount Online Warehouse and
AuctionLiquidator.com subsidiaries. Success of the
company’s key business segment is driven by a number of
factors including the recent strong growth in US retail
e-commerce revenues and the expanding availability and
usage of high-speed internet connections by American
consumers.
- Shift To Consumer-Direct Marketing
Approach Provides Enormous Opportunity For Future
Growth. The company’s recent decision to target
consumers rather than focusing on meeting the needs of
small business’ only, allows it to target a virtually
endless community of potential members and should
result in increased revenues and decreased costs.
- Recent Launch of New Media and Internet
Marketing Campaigns Will Boost Brand Recognition,
Increase Membership Base. OnlineSupplier.com has
serviced more than 235,000 customers since its inception
in August of 2003, and online membership activations
grew at a staggering rate of 900% from July 2005 to
August 2005. The company is targeting a launch date of
January 2006 for nationwide broadcast of its first
infomercial. NeWave’s optimal mix of television,
internet, email, and affiliate marketing strategies will
allow the company to reach out to a continuously growing
demographic, resulting in increased revenues and
membership growth.
Corporate Overview
NeWave, Inc, is a leading provider
of turnkey ecommerce driven business solutions that meet
the needs of large organizations, small stand-alone
businesses, and the average consumer. The company,
through its onlinesupplier.com subsidiary provides
members with an extensive selection of products at
wholesale prices, in addition to the complete
infrastructure required to effectively establish, manage
and market an online business
NeWave is able to effectively
differentiate itself from competitors in the e-commerce
marketplace through its ability to provide and
effectively market a complete e- commerce solution to
the entire US consumer population. Through an optimal
combination of online advertising, direct email, and
affiliate marketing strategies the company has the
capabilities to increase brand awareness in virtually
all US consumer markets in a very cost effective manner.
The success of the
OnlineSupplier.com subsidiary is resulting in increased
revenues for NeWave Inc., which recently reported record
gross revenue of $2,673,365 for the quarter ended June
30, 2005 vs. $1,862,476 for the quarter ended June 30,
2004 an increase of 43.5%, as compared to and industry
average growth rate of 16.5%. At this point in time,
there are six main revenue streams that contribute to
the growth of the company.
|
Table 1. Revenue Mix |
Est. |
|
Revenue Stream |
Revenue Distribution |
|
Membership fees earned from
web hosting and other web-based services
provided to the Company's customers |
40% |
|
Upsale of services
provided by affiliated service providers |
10% |
Sales of customer lead information generated from potential customers
who decide not to use the company’s services
|
10% |
|
Advertising income |
10% |
|
Commissions earned from
referrals to affiliated credit card processing
service providers |
10% |
|
Product sales from the
Company’s online store |
20% |
Market Trends/Key Investment Highlights
The company’s ability to provide a
complete e-commerce solution for web-based business
uniquely positions NeWave to capitalize on opportunities
in a number of key markets.
The more prevalent trends and
issues impacting NeWave Inc.’s future growth include the
following:
E-Commerce Growth
Due to the web-based nature of
NeWave’s business model, the growth of e-commerce in the
United States is essential to the future expansion of
the company, both in terms of membership and revenue
growth. Recent research from government agencies and
industry experts indicate explosive growth over the next
five years for e-commerce transactions and retail
e-commerce sales in the United States.
United States Census information
indicates that retail e-commerce sales are accounting
for an increasing portion of the country’s overall
retail sales (see Figure 1). E-commerce sales are
defined as goods and services sold over the Internet, an
extranet, Electronic Data Interchange (EDI), or any
other online system.
(Note: Online travel services, financial brokers and
dealers, and ticket sales agencies are not classified as
retail and are not included in either the total retail
or retail e-commerce sales estimates)
Figure-1
|
Year |
Retail Sales |
E-Commerce as a
percent of Total Sales |
|
E-commerce |
Total |
|
|
|
|
|
|
2000 |
28,000 |
3,070,186 |
0.91 |
|
2001 |
34,623 |
3,156,754 |
1.09 |
|
2002 |
44,287 |
3,230,122 |
1.37 |
|
2003 |
55,996 |
3,399,544 |
1.65 |
|
2004 |
69,176 |
3,664,582 |
1.89 |
Source: United States
Department of Commerce, February 24, 2005.
In addition to United States
Government studies, a recent study by Forrester Research
shows e-commerce transactions in 2005 growing to $168
billion compared to $145 billion in 2004. By year 2010,
e-commerce sales are projected to reach $316 billion..
Expanding Use of High Speed
Internet
Increasing availability and usage
of high speed internet connections in the United States
are contributing to the growth of e-commerce revenues.
In recent years, broadband Internet connections have
become essential to the optimal performance of
e-commerce solutions and the transfer of real time
information.
According to a report released by
the Federal Communications Commission (FCC) in 2004,
broadband internet subscribers approached 38 million,
roughly 17% of total U.S. population. With ninety-nine
percent of the U.S. population now able to subscribe to
and receive broadband internet connections, growth rates
are sure to continue.
Further adoption of high speed
internet connections will result in an increase of
American consumers equipped with the technological
capabilities needed to optimally utilize solutions
provided by NeWave Inc.
Growth of US Small Business
and Home Business
With the United States economy in a
prolonged economic slump, an ever increasing percentage
of the population is pursuing alternative
entrepreneurial opportunities in order to supplement
their regular income and/or avoid unemployment. At this
point in time, many small and home based business
startups could greatly benefit by conducting business
over the internet but do not have the capital or
technological know-how needed to do so.
Results of a recent study conducted
by Yahoo! and Harris Interactive reveal that
72 percent of American adults have
considered starting their own businesses and 75 percent
believe the Internet has greatly simplified the task.
NeWave’s relatively low cost
products and services ideally position the company to
capitalize on this opportunity. The ability to meet the
needs of entrepreneurs not equipped with the
technological and financial resources necessary to
develop and efficiently manage a retail e-commerce
solution is a key factor in the company’s success.
Consumer-Direct Marketing
Approach
The company’s recent shift towards
a consumer-direct marketing approach greatly expands
NeWave’s target market to include US internet users of
nearly all ages, backgrounds and business types of
varying sizes. By adopting a new outlook in regards to
customer acquisition the company has created a situation
in which its potential customer base is virtually
limitless.
Costs associated with NeWave’s new
customer acquisition strategy will significantly
decrease in the near term. With the streamlined, more
efficient plan implemented, it becomes much easier for
the company to relay its message to the entire country
simultaneously, rather than identifying and qualifying
leads based on a number of key criteria such as age,
business type, and business size.
As the adoption rate of high speed
internet connections continues to grow rapidly,
consumers of both young and old are increasingly using
the web for e-commerce activities. In addition to the
teenage and young adult demographic, internet users
ranging from ages 50-64 account for 20% of internet
users. This represents a key target demographic due to
their knowledge of the internet and enormous spending
power.
Due to the ease of use and
flexibility of NeWave Inc.’s e-commerce solution it can
be utilized by members offering products and services
ranging from consumer electronics to financial planning.
This creates an exciting opportunity for the company and
allows it to take advantage of current and future trends
in online business such as the recent surge in online
travel sales
Recent research conducted by
eMarketer states that the online travel sales will climb
to $58 billion this year, up 19.7 percent from the $48.5
billion in sales recorded in 2004. In addition to
traditional retail sales, a growing number of online
entrepreneurs are beginning to bring their travel and
real estate businesses to the web.
Liquidation of Capital Intensive
Business Segments
In effort to reach profitability
and reduce overhead costs NeWave
has recently made the decision to close its
AuctionLiquidator subsidiary and halt the establishment
of additional subsidiaries at this point in time.
Currently, the company is placing strict focus on its
core business, OnlineSupplier.com, due to its recent
success and potential for enormous future growth.
Although the AuctionLiquidator business was experiencing
initial success, company officials felt that the
subsidiary was too capital intensive and would take an
extended period of time to turn profitable.
Conclusion and Investment Thesis
Based
solely upon the modest figures provided by the United
States Department of Commerce, and not taking into
consideration NeWave’s aggressive marketing, increased
membership, and corporate restructuring, it is our
estimation that Newave's annual revenues should easily
increase to $12,473,921 over the next twelve months,
$14,550,828 in fiscal year 2006 and $23,096,274 by 2010.
Year
over year growth in e-commerce has averaged 16.65% per
year from 2000 through 2004. With revenue growth
calculated using only 16.65% per year, and with the
elimination of unprofitable subsidiaries, we see no
reason why NeWave's stock price could not reach the
$2-3.00 range over the next twelve months and as high as
$10.00 in the next three years.
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